Analysis of agricultural development trend in 2015

 

      At present, the main factors that support the improvement of agricultural comprehensive production capacity are changing in China. From agricultural products, China's per unit area of chemical fertilizer and pesticide usage has reached 3.6 times and 2.5 times those of the average level in the world, the future can no longer rely on increased fertilizer and pesticide usage to increase agricultural production. From the perspective of resources, the future can not only expand the agricultural production by overdraft resources, but also to agricultural production beyond the carrying capacity of the resources and environment. From supporting measures, prices of main agricultural products in China has more than the prices of imported agricultural products, and production or trade practices linked to the "yellow box" support is close to China's accession to the world trade organization commitment to limit, to rely on to raise the minimum purchase prices and temporary Shouchu price, increase subsidies to stimulate agricultural production space narrowed significantly. From the mode of operation, with the young labor force in rural areas continued to transfer out, agricultural labor aging, agricultural sideline production, farmers and industry of increasingly serious, continue to rely on small scale of concurrent business of farmers to offer the potential of more agricultural products has been very limited.
In the face of the profound changes in the agricultural development, internal and external conditions, held at the end of last year the central economic work conference and the central rural work conference stressed that must unswervingly to speed up the transformation of agricultural development mode, and as soon go to the quantity, quality and benefit pays equal attention to, pay attention to improve competitiveness, focus on agricultural technology innovation, pay attention to the sustainable development of intensive, high output, product safety, resource conservation, environmental friendly road of development of modern agriculture. The core is to accelerate the development of agricultural development, which is consistent with the law of market economy, the condition of natural resources and the requirement of sustainable development..
       The external tension which is weakened by the ceiling is weakened by the endogenous power of the structural optimization of agriculture.. In the face of prices and subsidies in two "ceiling" cap constraints, promote agricultural development should rely more on market forces, through optimizing the structure, quality and efficiency enhanced the vitality of agricultural development. Optimization of agricultural structure should have a new idea, a new system, from production orientation to consumption oriented transformation, by popular and dependable to brand transition, from simple on the land to think of a way to to face whole land resources do change the. Adaptation of animal husbandry in agriculture accounted for the ratio continued to improve the development trend to accelerate agriculture and animal husbandry with, the traditional food and economic crop binary planting structure adjustment for grain, economic crops and forage crops ternary planting structure, improve the internal resources of agricultural conversion efficiency and overall operating income. The industry chain, value chain and other modern industrial organization way to introduce agriculture, promote the integration of the one two three industry development. To promote the integration of information technology and agricultural modernization, using a large data for new agricultural enterprises to provide a full range of services, the electronic commerce new formats to promote local characteristics "small products to the national market.
       The new capacity of high standard farmland construction to hedge the production capacity of the ecological environment governance and exit. The ecological environment and sustainable agricultural modernization as an important goal, need to adjust serious pollution and groundwater overdraft area of cultivated land use, the implementation of a new round of grain is forest and grassland and orderly implementation of arable land to recuperate. Exit these unhealthy capacity, both to address the long-term livelihood of the affected areas of the farmers, but also to avoid the impact on the national agricultural production. Therefore, we must to strengthen the quality of arable land and infrastructure construction, in order to further improve the agricultural water and soil resources utilization efficiency as the core, concentrate on the construction of land leveling, fertile soil, contiguous, perfect facilities, rural power facilities, ecological good, disaster ability of high standard farmland, especially promote supporting agricultural water rights system and water price reform, to use economic means to mobilize the enthusiasm of farmers to develop water-saving irrigation.
       The reduction of agricultural inputs such as agricultural inputs such as the agricultural total factor productivity. In 2014, the contribution rate of scientific and technological progress to China's agriculture was 56%, and 20 percentage points lower than the developed countries. So, the agricultural total factor productivity and the agricultural total factor productivity were greatly improved by scientific and technological progress.. On the one hand, improve the use efficiency of chemical fertilizers, pesticides and other inputs, the reduction is not effective. Improve the level of scientific fertilization, according to the soil characteristics and crop need to measure the amount of soil fertilizer, promote the use of high concentration, slow release controlled release of good fertilizer. Actively carry out pest specialization, mechanical system control, research and development and promotion of high efficiency, low toxicity, low pesticide varieties. On the other hand, the development of the low rate of light technology. Bigger and stronger modern seed industry, speeding up the breeding of agricultural biotechnology innovation and application system. To strengthen the technology integration innovation and application in the fields of high efficiency cultivation, epidemic prevention and control, agricultural water-saving and so on. Strengthening technical training of farmers, improve the scientific level of farming and livestock raising.
       In order to resolve the problem of local land moderate scale management. With the family the main labor force to non-agricultural employment, agriculture in household income growth, with a decrease in the degree and some small scale concurrent business farmers will choose extensive management and even abandoned. The appropriate scale of operation to resolve the problem of local farming. Promote ownership, contract rights, management rights "three power division reform, accelerate the ownership registration certification pace, contract users to rest assured that transferred the right to operate and let operators stable engaged in agricultural production. At the same time, the implementation of new professional farmers cultivate engineering. The development of moderate scale operation should take family farm as the main form, and take "moderation" as the basic principle.